Oil had a bad time last week, but <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2021/08/23/oil-rebounds-as-china-contains-spread-of-delta-strain/"><u>better</u></a> this week so far, ahead of the next Opec meeting on 1st September. Prices were <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2021/08/20/oil-prices-continue-to-fall-on-demand-concerns-as-delta-variant-spreads/"><u>down 10%</u></a> earlier this month, with the contagion of the Delta variant in China met by further widespread lockdowns, denting road and aviation fuel demand. Other countries which have controlled the infection but have limited vaccination rates, including Australia, New Zealand and Vietnam, have now also been hit by Delta and face the conundrum of how and when to re-open their borders. By contrast, despite continuing waves of Covid-19, and weakening of consumer confidence, the US is seeking economic normalisation, with the <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/money/2021/08/23/all-eyes-on-the-fed-as-delta-variant-weighs-on-sentiment/"><u>Federal Reserve suggesting</u></a> it will taper its monetary stimulus. And for now, China’s strict measures appear to have contained Delta. <br/> Had oil continued on its downward trend from last week, Opec+ might have given serious thought to pausing the next monthly instalment of an additional 400 000 barrels per day of production. Barring any surprises over the next few days, the weather should now be set fair for that scheduled increase. And July’s resolution of the issue of baselines, following the UAE’s objection that its production capacity was assessed too low, should avoid any fundamental disagreements until at least into next year. The chaotic and tragic human scenes following the Taliban seizure of Kabul have captured global attention. But already, thoughts are turning to the geopolitical and geoeconomic ramifications. <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/comment/2021/08/19/belt-and-road-chinas-unfolding-opportunity-in-afghanistan-amid-taliban-takeover/"><u>China may be a beneficiary</u></a>, and at least has an incentive to ensure the country’s turmoil does not spill out into its Belt and Road infrastructure projects. <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/comment/2021/08/19/belt-and-road-chinas-unfolding-opportunity-in-afghanistan-amid-taliban-takeover/">Beijing’s funding may be crucial</a> for the new regime. But long-planned ambitious schemes to build oil or gas pipelines from Iran or Turkmenistan to China or India across Afghan territory seem certain to founder on the persistent problems of tough terrain, insecurity and regional political differences. <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2021/08/19/can-afghanistans-trillion-dollar-mineral-wealth-power-the-global-drive-for-evs/"><u>Afghanistan does hold huge estimated quantities of minerals</u></a> vital for new energy systems, notably copper, cobalt, tin, rare earths and lithium. Will China be able to work with a cash-short Taliban government to extract some of these resources? There are obvious strategic attractions to sourcing minerals from a neighbour. But Metallurgical Corporation of China’s contract for the giant Mes Aynak copper deposit, 40 kilometres south of Kabul, has made little progress since 2007. Again, infrastructure and security will be crucial to any progress. Other international investors may well be wary of concerns over human rights, corruption and environmental damage. In the Middle East, the emergence of new energy sources continues. A consortium led by China Three Gorges has <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2021/08/23/china-three-gorges-south-asia-investment-agrees-to-buy-alcazar-energy/"><u>agreed to buy</u></a> Dubai-based Alcazar Energy, a developer of solar and wind power across Jordan and Egypt. Dubai’s clean power generation <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2021/08/17/breaking-news-dubai-to-raise-share-of-renewables-to-13-before-year-end/"><u>will reach</u></a> 13 per cent of its total by the end of this year, with the completion of the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar park. The Emirate targets 75 per cent clean energy by 2050, with solar and in some areas wind becoming the Mena region’s cheapest sources of electricity. And the region’s hydrogen story continues to advance, with <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2021/08/18/breaking-news-adnoc-sells-blue-ammonia-to-japans-inpex/"><u>Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s sale of “blue” ammonia to Japan’s Inpex</u></a>, made from hydrogen derived from natural gas, with resulting carbon dioxide emissions captured and stored. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman have taken an early lead in the race for the clean fuel hydrogen, with projects for both blue and “green”, made using renewable energy, moving forward. Oil companies continue to seek ways to reconcile the imperatives of shareholders and the energy transition with the demands of operating in Iraq. Baghdad has approved BP’s plans to <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2021/08/25/iraq-approves-bps-plans-to-spin-off-rumaila-oilfield/"><u>spin off</u></a> its contract to operate the Rumaila field. The field in southern Iraq, the country’s largest producer, will be moved into a new entity, Basra Energy, co-owned by existing partner China National Petroleum Corporation. The UK oil supermajor’s move follows similar restructuring of its businesses in Norway, and plans to move its assets in Algeria and Angola into joint ventures with ENI. The deal gets high greenhouse gas emissions off BP’s books and positions it for an eventual sale of Rumaila. Investors in Iraq’s oil sector, including Shell, ExxonMobil and Lukoil, have exited or considered exiting various projects with complaints over poor contractual terms, bureaucracy and payment delays. This in turn challenges Iraq’s production growth ambitions as the Opec+ cuts unwind. And in a <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/comment/2021/08/23/how-a-deal-in-australia-highlights-the-contradictions-in-energy-transition/"><u>different deal</u></a> also inspired by energy transition concerns, Australia’s Woodside has become the country’s biggest oil and gas corporation by agreeing to buy the petroleum business of mining compatriot BHP. Woodside seems to get useful cashflow generation at a reasonable price, paid in its shares, while BHP sheds fossil fuel assets that were hampering its future story as a producer of “green” minerals. But Woodside’s previously clean-ish story as a leading liquefied natural gas producer now looks muddier. Is reshuffling oil-field ownership really helpful to reducing emissions and meeting the demands of environmentally-focussed funds?